Cyber warfare is a type of war strategy developed by information and communication technologies, which is a striking reality of the digital age. This digital conflict presents a dimension that is quite different from the traditional understanding of war, deeply affecting international relations and national security. In order to better understand what cyber warfare is, it is necessary to take a look at the components used on its basis.
Cyber War Dynamics: Key Components and Definition
The basis of this cyber warfare is attacks carried out through computers, networks, and software. These attacks target critical infrastructures and can hit vital sectors such as energy, communications, finance, and defense. In this article, we will examine what cyber warfare is and the worldwide effects of this new type of warfare. The complexity and consequences of this war create a significant concern for governments, companies, and individuals today.
Global Impacts and Concerns of Cyber Warfare
The cyber world has become an important part of human life and the functioning of the modern economy. According to Symantec’s data, the volume of IoT (Internet of Things) will reach 21 billion devices in 2025 (1). In this context, it is possible to talk about the many benefits that the IoT revolution brings to our daily lives, such as smart grids, smart cities, and autonomous vehicles. However, the discovery of this new world brought with it many security vulnerabilities. In addition, critical infrastructures that are deeply affected by this transformation are also under direct threat from cyber risks and attackers. However, recently, in parallel with the increase in geopolitical tensions, cyber security threats in critical infrastructures have become an important research topic. Have critical infrastructures become the new element of the “digital cold war”?
Geopolitical Dimensions of Cyber Warfare
Last week, the New York Times newspaper, one of the major US publications, reported that the US had increased its digital attacks on Russia’s power grids and that this initiative warned Russian President Vladimir V. Putin as a sign of the Trump administration’s more offensive stance on the use of cyber weapons. pointed out that it has the characteristics Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, in his statement to the Reuters news agency, suggested that these initiatives could be a cyber war against Russia. Peskov stated that they are working to keep the economy safe against these attacks. According to the Times, these developments point to the risk of escalation of the Digital Cold War between Washington and Moscow.
According to the news, the USA’s examination and research studies on control systems used in Russia’s critical infrastructures have been continuing since 2012, but this strategy has recently started to become more offensive. On the other hand, US officials made a statement to the New York Times. According to the statement, they stated that they intervened in the 2018 elections to combat Russian interference and prevent attacks.
Cyber War Between USA and Russia
The competition between the USA and Russia in the cyber world has been going on for many years. In 2008, Russia’s infiltration of the Pentagon’s secret communications network led to the establishment of the US Cyber Command. During the President Obama era, although cyber attacks against the United States increased, President Obama was in favor of not pursuing a similar aggressive policy against Russia’s aggressive attitude in the cyber world. The US strategy towards the cyber world seems to have changed significantly during the President Trump era compared to the Obama era. According to the New York Times, President Donald Trump gave new powers to the US Cyber Command last summer. In addition, these new powers give General Nakasone more initiative to conduct offensive operations without needing authorization from President Trump, the Times alleged.
While the New York Times’ news made a big impact on the international community, “Is cyber armament accelerating on a global scale and the possibility of cyber war increasing?” It also brought the question to the agenda again. It seems that while the cyber world is now seen by armies and policymakers as another “war front” along with air, land, and sea, new war strategies are emerging with transforming threat perceptions. However, compared to conventional battlefields, there are many different dynamics and risks related to cyberspace. In other words, events in the “human-made” cyber world are not observable or influenceable by anyone. Operations in the cyber domain are largely carried out only by people who have sufficient knowledge on the subject, and operations in the cyber domain are concluded very quickly compared to the physical world.
International Critical Infrastructure Attacks
According to research, in the past 25 years, major cyber powers, especially the USA, Russia, China, Israel, France, England, and Iran, have managed to infiltrate critical infrastructures. Although these attacks are similar to each other in terms of information/intelligence gathering, social engineering, and their purposes, they are quite different from a technical perspective. On the other hand, after infiltrating a network through cyber attacks, it is possible to disable the system as well as explore it in depth.
There is another element in cyber warfare that distinguishes it from other war fronts. In the cyber world, there are no sharp boundaries as in the physical world, and in the context of the wave of globalization, many infrastructures are in a relationship of interdependence with each other. Therefore, operations carried out in cyberspace become largely uncontrolled and unlimited. This unique “interconnected” structure of the cyber world and the risk of a cyber attack targeting critical infrastructures creating an unpredictable “domino” effect make the distinction between enemy/ally difficult.
First Cyber War: 2007 Estonia Cyber Attack
The cyber attack, which was claimed to have occurred due to the tension between Russia and Estonia and digitally paralyzed Estonia’s banks and public services in 2007, was interpreted as the “first cyber war” by many experts. Then, Stuxnet, which targeted Iran’s Natanz Nuclear facility in 2011, went down in history as an extremely smart and advanced cyber weapon targeting critical infrastructures. The power outage due to cyber attacks in Ukraine in December 2015 was an indication that it is possible to keep a country in the dark with cyber attacks. Based on the New York Times report, it is possible to say that “cyber” tension is escalating on a global scale. In this context, critical infrastructures, especially energy infrastructures, which are the skeleton of a country, are very important. These are a new and fragile element of war due to their strategic importance. However, according to many analysts, the footsteps of cyber attacks are getting stronger. However, threatening a country with a cyber attack may escalate the risk of cyber war rather than providing deterrence.
Conclusion: Questions and Debates Beyond Cyber Warfare
Cyber warfare is a reality that radically affects international relations and national security in today’s complex and connected world. Attacks on critical infrastructures can seriously threaten vital sectors such as energy, communications, finance, and defense. The complexity and consequences of conflicts in cyberspace are a major concern for governments, companies, and individuals.
Throughout this article, we have examined the basic dynamics and case studies of cyber warfare. We are in a period where such conflicts are becoming more common as geopolitical tensions increase. However, the future of cyber warfare is uncertain and raises many questions. It is a matter of curiosity how these conflicts in the cyber world will be limited and how international norms and rules will be determined. Additionally, questions such as how to increase cyber security remain unanswered.
International cooperation and dialogue are important to prevent cyber war and minimize its effects. At the same time, cybersecurity investments and defense strategies need to be developed at the national level. Cyber warfare will be an ever-evolving threat with the rapid development of technology and increased global connections. Therefore, it is important to strengthen cybersecurity and solve problems in this area. This is of critical importance in order to reduce the effects of future conflicts.
As a result, after learning what cyber warfare is and its effects, we can understand that this process is becoming increasingly tense. Cyber security has become a priority issue at national and international levels. Multilateral cooperation, technological innovation, and effective policy-making will play an important role in solving this complex problem. In the future, greater efforts will be required to limit the effects of cyberwar and maintain peace in the digital world.
Additional Information:
1) Symantec, “The future of IoT: 10 predictions about the Internet of Things”, https://us.norton.com/internetsecurity-iot-5-predictions-for-the-future-of-iot.html
Resources:
1) David E. Sanger, Nicole Perlroth (2019). U.S. Escalates Online Attacks on Russia’s Power Grid https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/15/us/politics/trump-cyber-russia-grid.html
2) Fred Kaplan (2019). We’ve Entered a New Age of Cyberwar https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/06/trump-cyber-russia-power-hacking.html
3) Michael Schmitt (2019). U.S. Cyber Command, Russia and Critical Infrastructure: What Norms and Laws Apply? https://www.justsecurity.org/64614/u-s-cyber-command-russia-and-critical-infrastructure-what-norms-and-laws-apply/
4) Rebecca Klar (2019). Russia: Reported US cyberattack on power grid possible https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/448847-russia-reported-us-cyberattack-on-power-grid-possible